16 Reasons Why Trump May Not Get a Second Term

Though Republican frontrunner Donald Trump thinks his trip back to the Oval Office is all but guaranteed, there are some real hurdles he has to get past. Here are the 16 obstacles that may stand in the way of a second term.

Misleading Claims in Speeches

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Former President Trump loves his time in the spotlight, but unfortunately, he doesn’t always fact-check what he says. When announcing his run for the presidency in 2024, he exaggerated things he had achieved, such as a completed border wall and the price of gas during his term. The list of misrepresentations goes on and does not lead many to believe what he tells them.

Court Case – Classified Documents

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The trial date is May 20, 2024. Special counsel in the U.S. Justice Department Jack Smith has charged Trump with 37 felonies in connection with his removal of documents from the White House when he left office. He resisted repeated requests by federal officials to return them all. Federal investigators eventually conducted a raid at his Mar-a-Lago resort, seizing more than 100 classified and top-secret documents.

Court Case – Insurrection

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The trial is scheduled for March 4, 2024. Special Counsel Smith has also charged Trump with four federal felonies in connection with his attempt to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. Trump, “believing he had won” the election, encouraged his followers to stop the certification of election results at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. If found guilty of these charges, it will give him substantial legal standing to have him removed from the ballots.

Court Case – NYC Fraud

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Closing arguments have concluded. New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a civil suit against Trump, his adult sons, and his former aide Allen Weisselberg, alleging a years-long scheme in which Trump fraudulently reported the value of properties to improve the terms of his loans, all intending to inflate his net worth.

Court Case – Defamation and Sexual Assault

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The former President Trump is currently on trial to decide damages to be paid to E. Jean Carroll. Writer E. Jean Carroll said that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department store dressing room in the 1990s. When he denied it, she sued him for defamation and later added a battery claim. Trump has already been found liable for defamation and sexual assault, with a $5 million payout. This second trial takes the findings of the first trial as fact and is only to decide the monetary damages that are owed.

Court Case – Hush Money

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The trial is set for March 25, 2024. In March 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg became the first prosecutor to bring felony charges against Trump, alleging that the former president falsified business records as part of a scheme to pay hush money to women who said they had had sexual relationships with the former reality TV star.

Court Case – Election Subversion in Georgia

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The proposed trial date is August 5, 2024. District Attorney Fani Willis for Fulton County, Georgia, brought a huge racketeering case against Trump and 18 others, alleging a conspiracy to commit election fraud in his attempt not to lose the 2020 election.

Tax Fraud

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A New York judge hit the Trump Organization, including Trump Corp. and Trump Payroll Corp., with $1.6 million in fines for running a 15-year tax fraud scheme. A corporation cannot be charged with a criminal offense itself, so Allen Weisselberg, former chief financial officer, took the hit with the 15 counts. These charges included conspiracy, criminal tax fraud, and falsifying business records.

Civil and Human Rights Rollbacks

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Many, including the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, believe a vote for Trump is a vote backward in the civil and human rights movements. They list a long history of his work against LGBTQIA, Muslim, and immigrant rights among his many missteps as a political figure.

Connection with Violence and Threats

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Many fear that Trump’s hate-filled rhetoric may incite more violence if he serves another term. A “nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.”

Market Risks

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Trump’s tax reform bill in 2017 cut the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, and he has vowed on the campaign trail to lower it further to 15% if he’s elected to a second term in the White House. As well as the tax cuts, analysts have also flagged the risks associated with Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, widely criticized as a net negative for the U.S. economy and consumers.

Immigration Issues

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Immigration is firmly at the top of the agenda for the 2024 presidential race, with people just as firmly planted on their sides of the issue. For those worried about the influx of migrants without documentation, Trump’s call for mass deportations sounds appealing. For those who want to see more lenient immigration reform, Trump’s policies are extreme and terrifying.

Voter Discontent

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As set as Biden and Trump are to go head-to-head again, the country doesn’t seem as ready to concede to those being the options. Many donors, commentators, and leading political voices are speaking up to look for other candidates. This may be the year when people begin to vote for the third party if the Republicans and Democrats don’t look deeper into their rosters.

Legal Immunity Claims

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As mentioned before, Trump has his attorneys earning their money with the number of court cases on the docket. Trump doesn’t see a problem, feeling he has presidential immunity in the criminal charges against him. “The 234-year unbroken tradition of not prosecuting presidents for official acts, despite vociferous calls to do so from across the political spectrum, provides powerful evidence of it,” his lawyers proclaim.

Ballot Removal Attempts

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Due to the 14th Amendment’s post-Civil War declaration that no person who participated in insurrection against the United States can hold a public office, 30 states have cases to keep Trump’s name off the ballot in the GOP primaries. Colorado and Maine have already blocked him from their ballots because of his actions that inspired the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

Caucus Results

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Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) said in an MSNBC interview, “Almost half of the base of the Republican Party showing up for this caucus tonight voted against Donald Trump. Think about that.” The independents may be crucial in this year’s election if half the GOP is against bringing the former president back on the ballot.

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